The Kerman Bombings: Who Benefits and Who Loses from the Attack on Iran?

Will the terrorist attack trigger a wider conflict in the Middle East?

According to media reports, three police officers, including a 'lieutenant colonel', and three rescuers were among the dead. The second blast occured roughly 20 minutes after the first.

Yesterday, thousands of mourners gathered in the Iranian city of Kerman to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, by a US drone strike. Soleimani was a revered figure among many Iranians and a key architect of its regional strategy and influence. His killing in 2020 sparked outrage and retaliation from Iran and its allies, and brought the region to the brink of war.

But yesterday, the mourners were met with a horrific surprise. Two explosions ripped through the crowd, killing at least 84 people and injuring more than 140, according to Iranian media. The attack was one of the worst terrorist incidents in Iran’s history, and a brutal reminder of the escalating tensions and violence that have plagued the region in recent months and years.

The attack in Kerman also came amid a series of covert and overt actions against Iran and its allies in the region, which have raised the specter of a wider conflict. In the past few weeks, Iran and its allies have faced a cyberattack that disrupted Iranian gas stations, the killing of a senior IRGC commander in Damascus, and the assassination of a deputy political leader of Hamas in Beirut. At the same time, Iran-backed Iraqi militias have intensified their attacks on US positions in Iraq, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have launched strikes on shipping in the Red Sea that they allege are linked to Israel.

In this volatile context, the perpetrators of the Kerman attack may have intended to provoke Iran and further inflame the situation. While many Iranian officials have blamed Israel for the attack, without providing any evidence, the Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for it about 24 hours later. ISIS said that the attack was a “severe security blow to the Iranian government” and that it occurred “at a time when several parties were trying to market Iran’s projects in the region.” ISIS also said that the attack was carried out by two suicide bombers, contradicting earlier reports that suggested remote-controlled explosives were used.

The ISIS claim, if true, would fit its modus operandi and its ideological agenda. ISIS has carried out similar attacks in Iran before, such as the 2017 assault on the Parliament and the Mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini, and the 2022 attack on the Shahcheragh shrine in Shiraz. ISIS is a sworn enemy of Iran, and seeks to undermine its regional influence and legitimacy. ISIS also benefits from chaos and instability in the Middle East, and may hope to spark a war between Iran, Israel, and the US. However, it is unclear why ISIS took longer than usual to claim responsibility for the Kerman attack, and whether it had any external support or coordination.

The other possible suspect, Israel, has a history of conducting covert operations in Iran, targeting its nuclear program, military personnel, and civilian infrastructure. Israel views Iran as an existential threat, and has vowed to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons or establishing a permanent presence in Syria. Israel may have seen the Kerman attack as an opportunity to avenge the October 7 attack and to strike a blow at the legacy of Soleimani, who was widely seen as Israel’s arch-foe. However, it seems unlikely that Israel would resort to suicide bombings, which are not consistent with its usual methods. Moreover, it seems doubtful that Israel would risk a full-scale war with Iran, given the high costs and uncertainties involved. Israel and Iran have maintained a mutual deterrence in the region, preferring to engage in proxy warfare and limited skirmishes rather than direct confrontation.

Importantly, one of the factors that deter Israel from seeking a total war with Iran is Iran’s own military capabilities, and its regional allies, especially Hezbollah and its arsenal of an estimated 150,000 missiles. Israel is well aware of the formidable challenge and the credible threat that these forces pose to its security and interests. Israel is also mindful of the US position and involvement in the region, which may not align with its own. While some analysts have suggested that Israel may try to provoke a conflict and drag the US into it on its behalf, the recent departure of the Gerald Ford and previously the Eisenhower aircraft carriers from the Eastern Mediterranean indicates that the US and Israel do not anticipate or desire a war. Therefore, it seems improbable that Israel was behind the Kerman bombings, but it may still benefit from them by undermining Iran’s image and influence, and by diverting attention from its own troubles.

The course of the Gaza war, however, continues to hurt Israel strategically, and to expose its vulnerabilities and limitations. Despite its overwhelming military superiority and indiscriminate bombings, Israel has failed to achieve its objectives and to stop the rocket fire from Gaza. The war has also sparked immense international condemnation and criticism, and has inflamed the Palestinian cause and resistance. Tehran is likely content to see the current status quo continue without drastically escalating in the near future. Iran has been able to project its power and support for the Palestinians, and to rally its allies and proxies against Israel. Iran has also been able to avoid direct confrontation with Israel and the US, and to preserve its nuclear program and its regional interests. Iran may also hope to capitalize on the changing political landscape in the US and the region, and to revive the nuclear deal and ease the sanctions that have crippled its economy.

The Kerman attack, ultimately, reveals the fragility of the security situation in the Middle East, and the potential for miscalculation and escalation. It also highlights the need for dialogue and diplomacy to defuse the tensions and prevent further bloodshed.