The Unwinnable War: Israel’s Quagmire in Gaza
The Limits of Israeli Power and why Hamas is Likely to Survive
Above: Map of Israel air raids against Gaza from Oct.7-15
What started as a surprise attack by Hamas on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War has escalated into a full-scale war that has claimed nearly 10,000 Palestinian and Israeli lives thus far and displaced millions. But can Israel destroy Hamas, as is the stated aim of its leaders?
In this post, I will argue that Israel is facing a dilemma: it cannot win this war, but it also cannot afford to lose it. I will analyze the challenges and constraints that Israel faces in this war in the military, diplomatic, media, and political arenas.
The Military Dilemma
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is locked into a vicious cycle of bloodshed. Israel is unleashing its military might on Gaza, saying it is defending itself and minimizing civilian harm. But the truth is horrifying: thousands of innocents killed, and a humanitarian disaster in the making. Israel’s leaders have openly declared their goal to cripple Gaza’s vital services and infrastructure.
Hamas, meanwhile, has not ceased its rocket fire at Israel, reaching deep into its territory. Its rockets are crude and random, putting millions of Israelis in constant danger. It also continues to hold hundreds of Israeli civilians as hostages.
Israel’s aerial bombardment has not deterred Hamas’s rockets or broken its will. Hamas can still strike and restock its arsenal with the help of its allies, especially Iran.
Against this backdrop, a ground invasion would be even more risky and complex for Israel, because of:
Hamas’s unexpected strength: Hamas demonstrated its skill and reach in a stunning attack that revealed Israel’s intelligence and security lapses. The attack rattled Israel’s confidence and surely raised questions within the Israeli security establishment about Hamas’s full capabilities.
The challenge of Gaza: Gaza is one of the most crowded places on earth, with over 2 million people in a tiny area. Hamas is likely ready for an Israeli ground assault and has a web of underground tunnels and weapons. It also has thousands of fighters who know the urban landscape and are ready to die for their cause.
Israel’s limitations and Netanyahu’s weakness: Israel’s political situation has for years been intensely polarized and volatile, which has continued despite Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz forming a coalition government only after the war began. Netanyahu is facing a massive public discontent, corruption charges, and fresh protests over his government’s inability to stop the Hamas attack. A ground invasion could damage his popularity and credibility even more, especially if it leads to high losses or a deadlock.
Furthermore, defining a purpose for entering Gaza is very difficult. As US officials have warned, Israel has no clear plan or exit strategy for Gaza. If it withdraws without achieving anything, it will look like a defeat. If it stays for too long, it will face an expensive and prolonged occupation that will drain its resources, morale, and hurt the Israeli economy.
If Israel manages to oust Hamas, which is unlikely, it will create a power vacuum that could be filled by even more radical groups than Hamas. On the other hand, if it talks to Hamas, it will give legitimacy to its foe and weaken its deterrence.
The War and the Global Diplomatic Impasse
The war has plunged the world into a diplomatic furor and stalemate. The US has blocked any UN intervention and sided with Israel, while many other nations have condemned Israel’s attacks and called for an immediate ceasefire. The media and public opinion in West have also been unprecedently divided, with some supporting what they say is Israel’s right to self-defense and others accusing it of war crimes and collective punishment.
But after the first week of the war, there has been a palpable shift in western and global sentiment against Israel’s actions. The scenes of humanitarian crisis in Gaza, coupled with racist and genocidal rhetoric from Israeli officials, have appalled much of the international community.
In this context, Israel cannot win the war by relying only on its military power and the backing of a few Western allies. And the more it commits, the harder it will be for it to exit. Even direct US military involvement is likely to make the war more complex, difficult, and prolonged, and will not ensure Israel’s success.
In past conflicts in Gaza, Israel has always ended up withdrawing and negotiating. The same outcome is likely now, given the geopolitical context. The Biden administration does not want a wider war that could help the Republicans in the upcoming elections. Moreover, most regional powers and global powers are opposed to a prolonged war in the Middle East.
The Hamas Question
The war is occurring in a context in which Hamas has built strategic alliances with various regional actors, such as Hezbollah, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and other armed groups in the region. It is also occurring during a period of newfound diplomatic unity and solidarity among the Islamic world, which has been divided for a long time. The Iran-Saudi rapprochement has shifted regional dynamics and the alignment of some Islamic countries. Many of them, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and Jordan, are showing strong support for the Palestinians beyond what they have done in the recent past.
These factors also make it unlikely that Gaza’s Hamas rulers will face a decisive defeat. Israel cannot topple their regime by killing their leaders or fighters, as they will be replaced by others and in any case, much of their senior leadership is based in other countries.
This raises the questions, what would “victory” for Hamas look like? I would argue that, if after this war, Hamas can get Israel to release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, ease the blockade on Gaza, and establish long-term stability like occured in southern Lebanon after 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, they can declare victory. What they have already accomplished with their horrific terrorist attack on October 7, however, is bringing Palestine back to the top of the world agenda and greatly frustrating efforts for Israeli-Saudi normalization.
Israeli Deadlock and the Possible Outcomes
As the world reacts to the outbreak of violence, Israel is stuck in a deadlock. In this situation, two possibilities stand out:
Israel escalating the war to the region to decisively change the balance of power. This is unlikely for now or at least very hard, because of the opposition of regional countries, the huge costs for the US and Israel, and the risk of a wider war. China, which invests heavily in the region, would also not want the war to grow.
Moreover, while Israel is vulnerable on the Gaza front, it does not want to open the northern front with Lebanon. But if it can stabilize itself on the Gaza front, survive this stage, and get more help from the US, it may consider a wider response to Hezbollah and Iran in the region.Another, more likely possibility is dialogue and relative agreement facilitated by Egypt and other mediators as has happened with past Israel-Gaza wars. This is currently the most likely scenario in most conflicts that will emerge sooner or later after the highs and lows of the war.
Ultimately, the war has exposed the need for a lasting peace between Israel and Palestine based on justice, dignity, and security for both peoples. Without addressing the root causes of the conflict, such as occupation, oppression, inequality, violence, hatred, fear, mistrust, etc., there will be no end to this cycle of bloodshed.