How Biden’s Airstrikes Are Fueling the Middle East Crisis - and What He Can Do to Stop It

^Image of the Biden administration’s strikes against targets in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq over the past few days

In October 2014, then-Secretary of State John Kerry astutely observed, “There wasn’t a leader I met with in the region who didn’t raise with me spontaneously the need to try to get peace between Israel and the Palestinians.” He attributed this to the fact that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was a significant cause of recruitment for extremist groups and a source of public anger and agitation. Kerry’s words underscored the profound impact of Israel’s subjugation of the Palestinians on regional instability and its role as a catalyst for extremism.

^source: https://web.archive.org/web/20170104075745/https:/www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/10/233058.htm

Towards the end of his tenure, Kerry also gave a famous speech critical of the Israeli government, stating, “Regrettably, some seem to believe that the US friendship means the US must accept any policy, regardless of our own interests, our own positions, our own words, our own principles.” He detailed Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians, stopping just short of labeling it as apartheid. He posed a powerful question, “Would an Israeli accept living that way? Would an American? Will the world accept it?”

Fast forward to the present, we find ourselves in the midst of a regional crisis, the Gaza war, and a flare-up between the US and Iran and its regional allies, self-styled as the “resistance front.” Against this backdrop, the Biden administration’s bombing raids in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, ostensibly in response to the drone attack that killed three US servicemen and women in Jordan, cannot be justified as a rational or sustainable policy.

Biden’s strategy will inevitably fail unless it addresses the core issues that fuel turmoil in the region, namely Israel’s subjugation of the Palestinians (as presciently explained by John Kerry) and the relentless economic war on Iran. While Biden may have hoped that signaling the strikes in advance would deter further attacks by Iran-allied groups and avoid a full-blown war, he is, in effect, waging war on the “resistance front” that spans across the region.

However, such an approach will not deter or destroy these groups, but rather provoke them to retaliate and continue to harm US interests as part of their stated aim to secure an end to the Gaza war. This is evident from the past precedents of such US military interventions in the region, which have only resulted in more violence, instability, and radicalization.

The only realistic way to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region is through a diplomatic solution that respects and addresses the legitimate grievances and interests of all parties. This requires the US to use its influence over Israel to break the deadlock in negotiations for a two-state solution, as well as to resume talks with Iran to de-escalate tensions.

Regarding the latter point, CIA director William Burns recently wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs where he noted that the “key to Israel’s—and the region’s—security is dealing with Iran.” I am sure he chose the word “dealing” carefully and deliberately, as it is vague. However, given that there is no viable alternative to serious and comprehensive diplomacy with Iran, his remark implies to me that he acknowledges the need to reach some kind of agreement with Iran.

To this end, in 2017, the CIA foresaw the consequences of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The agency warned that such an action would empower Iranian hardliners, marginalize moderates, and result in attacks in the Middle East. This prediction proved accurate as Iran’s political landscape shifted, and its counter-escalations increased.

^source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/magazine/iran-strike-israel-america.html

From the 2019 Aramco strike, the 2020 Ain Al Assad attack, to the surge in regional violence, Iran has sought to impose a cost on the US and its allies. This is the crucial context that many are overlooking or deliberately ignoring. Iran has been counter-escalating across the region since 2018 because the US violated its agreement with Tehran and pursued economic warfare aimed at regime change.

Iran has been trying to increase the costs of this policy for the US and its allies, as leverage to bring America towards compromise. Notably, Biden has thus far failed to give Tehran the assurances it needed for a new deal, in large part by coming to office with his administration declaring they want a “stronger and longer” deal with Iran as opposed to rejoining the last one.

Furthermore, Biden continued Trump’s misguided Abraham Accords, which were a deeply flawed attempt to isolate the Palestinians and forge an anti-Iran coalition between Arab autocracies and Israel. The events of October 7th exposed the futility of this strategy, and the urgency of genuine diplomacy. Only the US, with its unique influence on both Israel and Iran, has the capacity to facilitate a lasting and stable peace in the region through diplomacy.