The Unequal War
Reflections on the Gaza Ceasefire and Israel’s Strategic Defeat
After 15 months of relentless warfare that many have credibly described as genocidal, the Gaza ceasefire marks an undeniable strategic defeat for Israel. The terms of the agreement, painfully extracted through months of attrition, reveal the bitter reality: Israel has achieved virtually none of its original objectives, while Hamas has secured nearly all of its demands. This war, waged between one of the world’s most advanced militaries and a besieged guerrilla organization, underscores the limits of brute force and the perils of hubris.
From the beginning, analysts—including myself—warned that Israel was embarking on an unwinnable war. Hamas, entrenched within the local population, driven by genuine grievances, and adept at guerrilla warfare, was always positioned to outlast the Israeli assault. Despite the billions of dollars in aid and cutting-edge military technology provided to Israel by the United States and its allies, the outcome was predictable.
An Unequal Fight in an Unequal War
Consider the stark asymmetry: a regional power, armed with the latest in military technology, supported politically, militarily, and financially by the world’s superpower, faced off against a small organization in a confined and besieged strip of land. Over the past 15 months, Israel deployed its F-35 fighter jets, reconnaissance drones, and missiles against an enemy equipped primarily with RPGs, Kalashnikovs, and homemade explosives. The result? Over 20,000 Palestinian children killed, entire neighborhoods flattened, and civilian infrastructure obliterated—all for Israel to return to square one.
Despite Israel’s technological and financial advantages, it was Hamas that emerged from the rubble with its demands met. The basis of the ceasefire agreement mirrors the proposal first presented by the United States in May—a proposal rejected by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the time. In the end, Netanyahu was forced to swallow a bitter pill, agreeing to halt the war, withdraw from Gaza, and engage in a prisoner exchange that heavily favors Hamas.
The Cost of Hubris
Netanyahu’s unfulfilled promises stand as stark reminders of Israel’s failure:
• Gaza’s population remains un-displaced.
• The north and south of Gaza are not separated.
• Hamas was not defeated.
• Hostages were not freed without significant concessions.
These failures are not just tactical but strategic. Israel’s global reputation has been tarnished, its alliance with the United States strained, and its military deterrence weakened.
Notably, a review of Israeli outlets and analysts reveals a broad consensus: this war is being widely regarded as a decisive loss for Israel. Many point to the failure to achieve any meaningful objectives, compounded by the bitter irony that the ceasefire agreement mirrors proposals that could have been accepted months earlier—saving lives among the hostages and Israeli soldiers.
What Hamas Gained
The ceasefire deal underscores the extent of Hamas’ victory:
The release of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including hundreds serving life sentences.
Comprehensive withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
An agreement on humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts.
Defacto continued military and security control over Gaza, with a reorganized and reinvigorated leadership.
As General Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council, acknowledged: "Hamas succeeded in achieving its own goal of staying in power while preventing Israel from achieving any of its objectives."
A War That Should Never Have Been
This war was a tragedy on a scale that will haunt both sides for generations. Yet it serves as a powerful reminder that military might cannot resolve political conflicts rooted in deep-seated grievances and historical injustices. For Israel, the war has left behind a fractured society, strained alliances, and emboldened adversaries. For Palestinians, the cost was staggering, with lives lost, communities destroyed, and trauma inflicted on a massive scale.
In the end, the Gaza ceasefire is not just an end to hostilities but a stark indictment of the long-standing strategies that led to this devastating war.
Ultimately, there can be no lasting peace in the region without addressing the root causes of the conflict: the Israeli occupation and the denial of basic rights and dignity to the Palestinian people. Palestinians deserve a political horizon—a future where they are free from occupation, able to govern themselves, and live with dignity and equality.
This requires bold and decisive U.S. diplomacy, not to perpetuate the status quo but to chart a new course toward lasting peace. America must leverage its influence to end the occupation and support a fair, just, and sustainable solution that respects the rights of both peoples. Anything less is to condemn the region to repeat this tragedy again and again.